►Scotland Blown Wide open!- Polling latest
As well as the GB voting intention figures in the Telegraph, the SNP also released figures for voting intention in Scotland from their latest YouGov poll. Topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s last Scottish poll in mid-March are
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention: CON 15%(+1), LAB 30%(-4), LDEM 13%(+1), SNP 37%(+2)
Scottish Parliament regional voting intention:
CON 15%(nc), LAB 28%(-4), LDEM 13%(+2), SNP 37%(+7)
Westminster voting intention:
CON 21%(+1), LAB 32%(-5), LDEM 13%(+2), SNP 30%(+3)
In every case we have Labour dropping, with the SNP the largest beneficiary, albeit the other parties also gain. Asked who would make the best First Minister Alec Salmond is dominant, picked by 36%. He is followed, surprisingly, by Annabelle Goldie (Tory leader) on 10%, with Ian Gray on 7% and Tavish Scott on 4%
This shows the Scottish Cons on their highest level of support in Scotland since 1992 (when we recieved 24.8%), so auntie bella has led us up north to potentially the best night in Scotland for us in the last 15 years! Our long dark night could be coming to an end...
These figures (taking into account th margin of error of 3%) would see: just 34 Labour MPs, 8 SNP MPs, 7 Scot Tory MPs, 9 LibDem MPs (down from 11).
Nationally: UK level- the biggie
The Telegraph have published the first voting intention poll since the budget. The topline figures in the YouGov poll, with changes from their last one, are:
CON 45%(+4), LAB 27%(-7), LDEM 18%(+2).
It was conducted between Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Needless to say, it shows a collapse in the Labour vote with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats benefitting, though the changes are probably slightly exaggerated since the last YouGov poll showed a rather high level of Labour support compared to other recent polls.
Two things are worth noting - first, this isn’t necessarily the result of the budget, this is also the first YouGov poll since the “smeargate” story, and some polls were already showing Labour down below thirty.
Secondly, it is possible for instant reaction polls to be too instant. Most of YouGov’s responses would have been received on Wednesday, before the print media’s pretty hostile reception today and the post-budget discussion of spending cuts. This poll may not be showing the full effect of the budget. Things could get a heck of a lot worse for Labour...
UK Polling Average : worked out by UK Polling Report:
Polls involved in the average are:
|BPIX/Mail on Sunday||2009-04-18||45||26||17||Con +19||0.18|
|Marketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph||2009-04-16||43||26||21||Con +17||0.65|
|YouGov/Sunday Times||2009-04-04||41||34||16||Con +7||0.04|
Tory PM Ed Heath- under him Scottish Tories got one of our best ever number of Scot MPs into parliament from Scottish Consitituencies since the early 50's- 21 in all. RIP Sir Edward Heath.
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